As growth in Vertex's cystic fibrosis portfolio buoys the company amid the launch of gene therapy Casgevy, the company is feeling confident enough to boost its revenue outlook for the year.
After collecting $2.65 billion in second-quarter revenues, representing a 6% uptick from last year’s second quarter, Vertex lifted its full-year sales guidance to a range of $10.65 billion to $10.85 billion. The new forecast adds $100 million on either end of the company's prior guidance.
The new numbers reflect expectations for continued cystic fibrosis growth and Casgevy’s uptake in its approved indications and markets, the company said in a release.
After Casgevy's approval in sickle cell disease in December and subsequent FDA nod in beta thalassemia in January, it's still early days in the groundbreaking launch. But Vertex is steadily expanding its patient base and continues to predict a “potential multi-billion opportunity,” according to its earnings presentation (PDF).
So far, around 20 patients have begun their treatment journey with the cell collection process, Vertex reported.
Aside from reaching eligible patients, the company is working to get approved treatment centers up and running. Vertex looks to activate around 75 across the globe and is making progress on that front, with more than 35 currently active.
Treatment center and cell collection stats have swelled over just the past three months. In April, the company boasted “strong progress” in treatment center activation, with 25 under its belt at the time. At that point in mid-April, five patients had had their cells collected across the U.S., Europe and the Middle East.
The quick ramp-up of cell collections puts the drug on track to meet full-year consensus of around $54 million, analysts at Mizuho Securities wrote in a note to clients.
Alongside the some 35,000 potential Casgevy patients identified in the U.S. and Europe, the drugmaker looks to tap another market lucrative in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain alone could bring in another 23,000 eligible patients, according to Vertex.
Considering that Casgevy revenues are recorded once patients have been infused, analysts at William Blair expect sales to pick up during the third quarter, with a “greater influx” following in late 2024 and early 2025.
The William Blair team currently forecasts full-year revenue to come in at $81.4 million, a slight downturn from its first quarter expectations of $84.4 million, and continues to describe the sales opportunities in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain as “underappreciated.”
Meanwhile, Vertex has its popular Trikafta and other new cystic fibrosis prospects to lean on as it waits for Casgevy sales to flow. The guidance raise on Vertex’s part shows that the company is “still able to grow” its core cystic fibrosis franchise, the analysts at William Blair noted.
Trikafta sales totaled $2.45 billion over the quarter, representing most of the company's total sales. The other $196 million came from "other" cystic fibrosis products. Vertex also markets Kalydeco, Orkambi and Symdeko in its cystic fibrosis franchise.